The strength of China’s economic “stability” is gradually increasing

In 2017, the implementation of the “Thirteenth Five-Year Plan” entered an important year, and the supply-side structural reform entered a year of deepening. From the macroeconomic situation to supply-side structural reform, from revitalizing the real economy to real estateThe market is developing steadily and healthily, and the outside world’s attention to key issues in China’s economy continues to increase. At the 2017 National Policy Advisory Working Conference held recently, experts from the Development Research Center of the State Council focused on hot economic issues and elaborated on their thinking.

Deepening supply-side structural reform

Intermsofthefivemajortasksof”threereductions,onereductionandonesupplement”,LiWei,directoroftheDevelopmentResearchCenteroftheStateCouncil,saidthattoreduceovercapacity,wemusthighlightdisposal”Zombiecompanies”paymoreattentiontousingmarketandlegalmeanstoeffectivelypromotetheresolutionofinefficientproductioncapacity.Thekeytodestockingistoadheretothepositioningof”housesareforlivingin,notforspeculation”, adopt comprehensive policies based on local conditions, and accelerate the establishment of a long-term mechanism. The key to deleveraging is to actively and steadily reduce corporate leverage ratios while controlling the total leverage ratio. To reduce costs, we must continue to intensify our efforts in reducing taxes, fees, and factor costs. To remedy shortcomings, we must highlight both hard and soft weaknesses, both development and institutional weaknesses, optimize the market environment, and strengthen government services.

In terms of agricultural supply-side structural reform, Ye Xingqing, director of the Rural Economic Research Department of the Development Research Center of the State Council, said that three focus points must be grasped: First, agricultural competitiveness must be improved. On the one hand, we must fight for costs and prices, eliminate market distortions, and expand business scale; on the other hand, we must fight for features and functions, extend the industrial chain, ensure quality and safety, and expand the connotation of agriculture.

Ye Xingqing said that secondly, we must improve the sustainable development capabilities of agriculture. Strengthen Big Agriculture highlight the management of environmental problems, reduce the excessive use of chemical fertilizers and pesticides, promote the conversion and utilization of agricultural waste, and return farmland to forest , return farmland to wetland, return grazing land to grassland, and return livestock to beach.

Ye Xingqing believes that new driving forces for agricultural and rural development must be cultivated from three aspects: people, land, and money. In terms of “people”, it is necessary to optimize the structure of agricultural practitioners and cultivate new farmers such as modern young farmers, leaders of new agricultural business entities, and agricultural professional managers; attach importance to the role of “returners from the city” and guide people to return to their hometowns, return to their hometowns, and work in rural areas. rural areas, introducing modern technology, production methods and business models into rural areas.

　Macroeconomics The power of “stability” has gradually increased

“In the past few years, my country has The economic transformation has relatively successfully avoided ‘stall’.” Chen Changsheng, deputy director of the Macroeconomics Research Department of the Development Research Center of the State Council, said that currently, our country’s economy is in a state of transition from decline to stability. At a critical period, the focus of macroeconomic control is changing from “stopping the decline” to “improving quality.”

Chen Changsheng analyzed that after six years of continuous economic adjustment in this round of economic adjustment, a positive situation emerged in 2016 with a rebound in prices, a rebound in corporate profitability and overall employment stability. Combining changes in the international economic cycle and domestic mid- and long-term trends, my country’s economic transformation may have entered the second half. The risk of a short-term sharp decline in economic growth is reduced, the power of “stability” is gradually increasing, and L-shaped growth is expected to transition from “one vertical” To “one horizontal line”.

“The current upward force and downward pressure on China’s economy are still in a weak balance state.” Chen Changsheng said that to start a new growth stage and achieve sustainable medium-to-high-speed growth, this year still needs to be dealt with cautiously The uncertainty of the international economy has accumulated positive conditions, promoting the continued stabilization of manufacturing investment, the stabilization of PPI, and continuing to enhance the willingness of enterprises to replenish inventories.

Build real estate develop long-term mechanism

Regarding the basic system and long-term mechanism to promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market, Wang Wei, director of the Institute of Market Economics of the Development Research Center of the State Council, believes that it is necessary to improve the housing supply system, promote the balance between supply and demand of commercial housing, develop a multi-level housing market, standardize and promote Development of the secondary housing market and rental market; provision of public rental housing security.

Wang Wei believes that it is necessary to reform the land supply methods and systems, establish a land supply and demand balance mechanism, and promote land supply to adapt to population growth.Improve urban land use efficiency; improve the real estate financial system. Establish an adjustment mechanism to stabilize the housing financial environment; strengthen financial supervision of real estate development and the land purchase fund review system; improve policy-based housing finance policies.

Wang Wei said that it is necessary to improve fiscal and taxation adjustment and support policies, increase financial support, improve taxation adjustment in transaction links, and promote real estate tax reform in a timely manner.

Rebuilding consumer confidence and revitalizing the real economy

“In recent years, the development of my country’s real economy has encountered many difficulties and problems, mainly in terms of supply and demand. Structural imbalance, imbalance between the real economy and finance, and imbalance between the real economy and real estate.” Li Wei said.

Li Wei analyzed that to revitalize the real economy, we must first rebuild consumers’ confidence in domestic products and open up the intermediate links from demand to enterprises.

He said that it is necessary to implement “Made in China 2025”, strive to improve the innovation capabilities of enterprises, and successfully realize the transformation and upgrading to “digitization, networking, and intelligence”. We will build a number of strategic industrial clusters with core competitiveness as soon as possible and create a large number of well-known brands that are accepted and recognized by domestic and foreign markets.

(Original title: China’s economic “stability” is gradually increasing – experts from the National Research Center focus on economic hot spots in 2017)

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(Editor: DF319)