The measurement of macroeconomic situation must go beyond the popular “dichotomy”

At present, there are two consensuses: first, the macro fundamentals have shown a relatively optimistic start, and at the same time, the world is also filled with relatively optimistic sentiments; second, everyone will find that in the past It was difficult to see clearly the macroeconomics in the previous quarter, not just in the medium term, but actually in the short and medium term as well. And what is the reason for this consensus?

The first reason is that 2016 is another low point for the entire world economy since 2008. The January reports from the IMF, WorldBank, BIS and OECD all have this understanding. They originally believed that 2015 would be the lowest point for the world economy since 2008. Generally, when the economy is at a low point, major analysis reports will instill a relatively optimistic expectation and give everyone confidence. Of course, this is very important. But it is indeed unclear at the moment. The IMF is adjusting their economic forecasts, and the World Bank is also adjusting. Why is this? Because our country achieved great success in maintaining growth last year, with the level fixed at 6.7% for four quarters. This exceeded the expectations of economic analysts and forecasters. Their expectations were generally low. Many people believed that the growth rate would be around 4.0%. , a few percent. Of course, all current economic analysts have learned lessons from the past, and they have all raised their expectations for world economic growth. They believe that 2017 is the first year that the world economy will turn around.

Buteveryoneneedstothinkaboutaquestion:issuchajudgmentreasonable?Let’slookatthelogicofthisanalysis.

Firstofall,itisveryimportant,whyistheworldeconomyabletopickupatpresent?OurfirstbasisisthattheU.S.economyisverygood.SomeeconomistsaresayingthattheU.S.economywillbeverygoodin2017andthattheU.S.economyisontherise.Butwethinkthisjudgmentmaybewrong.Why?BecausetheturningpointintheU.S.economyactuallyoccurredbeforetheinterestratehikein2015,notin2016.TheU.S.economyhasshakenoffitsbottomin2016,butitsspillovereffectsarenotstrongasmonetarypolicygraduallynormalizes.ManypeopleputtheirhopeinTrump,believingthatTrumpwillimplementtheproactivefiscalpolicyheproposedduringthecampaign.AllanalyzesoftheimprovementoftheworldeconomyrelyonTrump’s unreliable promise. Above, many analytical reports in January believed so, but there may be uncertainty. At present, we can see that Trump’s fiscal policy will encounter several major problems: first, the problem of the US fiscal cliff in mid-March; second, the problem of congressional obstruction; third, the pressure of the international financial market itself, especially the United StatesTreasury bonds reflects a state of flux. Therefore, it is unknown to what extent the U.S. fiscal policy itself will be positive.

Secondly and more importantly, we will find that a series of spillovers brought about by “America First” are very strong. South Korea’s economy has been in decline recently. Why? The first driving force is China’s sluggish foreign trade. Of course what was the straw that broke the camel’s back? This is the latest pressure from the United States. Therefore, we will see that Trump’s new policies will have limited positive effects on the world economy, while the negative effects will exceed expectations. The second driving force is that China is developing very strongly? Last year’s target was 6.5%-7%, and this year’s target is 6.5%, which is basically the bottom line. This year, from top to bottom, from micro to macro, the goal is not to rebound strongly, but to make progress while maintaining stability.

Therefore, when you add up these problems, you can see that the optimism of the world is indeed an illusion. The bottom of the world economy in 2016 is just a conjecture, a conjecture that has not been confirmed. The current economic situation of China is indeed good, and the future economic situation will also be good. Of course, we cannot treat the Chinese economy with simple optimism, let alone pessimism.

Therefore, the fundamentals discussed so far cannot be simply measured by good or bad. In other words, we must go beyond the popular dichotomy and have a deeper study and judgment of the macro fundamentals. , only then may we have some policy choices for some current policy initiatives.

(Original title: The measurement of macroeconomic situation must go beyond the popular “dichotomy”)

(Editor: DF319)