Local governments want to invest in infrastructure to support the economy. How much social capital can 45 trillion activate?

(Original title: How much social capital can be activated if local governments want to invest 45 trillion yuan in infrastructure to support the economy?)

How much social capital can be activated by a 45 trillion investment? Social Capital

According to media reports, recently, various regions have successively announced government work reports for the two sessions. Judging from the information disclosed in local government work reports, the government has a strong willingness to promote infrastructure construction to support the economy. The 2017 fixed asset investment target calculated by the 23 provinces that have announced target growth rates has exceeded 45 trillion.

According to the investment targets announced by local governments, there is a strong will to “roll up our sleeves and work harder” and a strong determination to invest effectively to stabilize growth, promote development, and promote economic recovery. However, where the funds for such a large-scale investment will come from, and whether it will repeat the mistakes of the 4 trillion investment, is a question worthy of attention. Because, although the investment ideas proposed by various places look very different from the 4 trillion yuan, and the sources of funds seem to be more reasonable, such as PPP, it is really difficult to predict where the final destination will be. You must know that the 4 trillion investment that year was not entirely government investment at first. It also put forward requirements such as investing in the real economy and attracting social capital. However, the actual implementation result became that the government took over everything. Social capital only plays the role of jointly promoting the rise of housing prices with the government. Apart from participating in real estate development, social capital is basically not involved in other aspects.

The consequences of the government’s sweeping policies are that the real economy has been marginalized, social capital has no outlet, housing prices continue to rise, and government debt continues to expand. Because the government’s ability to mobilize social resources is so great that other investment entities simply have no ability to compete with and compete with the government. What the government is best at is urban construction and real estate development. It uses a high degree of control over land resources to drive up land prices and housing prices, and then uses the land that has been filled with a lot of “water” to obtain bank loans and various types of projects. Financing by financing institutions further promotes the rise in land prices and housing prices.

Because of this, the investment target announced by the local government now, the total investment amount has reached more than 10 times of 4 trillion, which cannot help but cause people to worry. Because the government plans to invest so much, who will play the leading role and who will be the main investors are very critical issues. Obviously, on this issue, the government should no longer be the protagonist. It cannot be the protagonist of direct investment, nor the protagonist of indirect investment, let alone disguised investment. If you want to become a protagonist, you must be a protagonist in improving the investment environment and providing services to social capital. Social capital must no longer be absent from this round of investment, cannot be marginalized, and cannot be deprived of investment space.

First of all, we must vigorously increase the proportion of investment in real industries. Judging from the current local economic structure, most investment in real industries comes from social capital, especially private capital. In other words, if the investment enthusiasm of social capital can be stimulated, the proportion of real industry investment will increase. On the contrary, to increase the proportion of investment in real industries, it is necessary to stimulate the investment vitality of social capital. It is obvious that the investment plans and investment targets announced by local governments are far from sufficient in terms of investment in real industries, and there are very few measures. In more cases, emphasis on the real economy and investment in the real industry remains in words, without the introduction of policies and measures that actually encourage and promote investment in the real industry. Social capital is not allowed to see the government’s sincerity in attaching importance to the real economy. It also leaves hidden dangers for the government to raise the banner of investment again. Therefore, we must vigorously increase the proportion of investment in real industries and vigorously attract social capital to participate in the development of the real economy. Social capital and the real economy coexist and grow together. The stronger the vitality of social capital, the stronger the motivation for investment in the real industry. On the contrary, it is difficult to become truly strong.

Second, we need to open up more channels for social capital to enter. Whether social capital can be dynamic and become the protagonist of investment depends on its own enthusiasm for investment. Whether the government is sincere and willing to open more channels for social capital to enter is also a very important aspect. Since last year, social capital, especially private capital, has become increasingly cautious in investment. In addition to the poor macroeconomic environment, the most important thing is that there are too few investment channels for social capital, and many profitable projects are not open to social capital. , and does not leave room for social capital to enter, resulting in social capital can only obtain benefits through market speculation and underground activities. Therefore, if we want to achieve the investment goals this year without causing new structural imbalances, we must provide more channels for social capital to enter. PPP, which is taken very seriously by various places, may be a good choice. However, it is not easy to really do a good job in PPP. In some places, disguised liabilities and indirect liabilities are only carried out in the name of PPP. Obviously, this must be strictly prohibited, and local governments must not be allowed to take advantage of loopholes.

Furthermore, it is necessary to effectively improve the government’s credit level. The government’s credit level, credit quality, and integrity are directly related to the investment enthusiasm, investment enthusiasm, and investment vitality of social capital. In recent years, social capital has participated in investmentAs a result, sentiment has weakened, especially the enthusiasm for investing in real industries. The reason is that the government’s breach of trust is quite serious, and corporate interests have suffered considerable losses due to the government’s breach of trust, resulting in a lack of confidence in participation. How to reshape the government’s image of integrity in the new round of investment, return government credit to government work, not make promises casually, and never break promises once they are made, so that social capital and social investors can trust and trust the government. It is very important for social capital to participate in investment.

Finally, we must vigorously promote the reform of state-owned enterprises. When the enthusiasm for direct investment projects of social capital has not yet been fully stimulated, attracting the participation of social capital through the reform of state-owned enterprises is the most direct and effective means. At present, social capital is still cautiously waiting to participate in the reform of state-owned enterprises. The reason is that it is worried that its rights will not be protected after participation. It should be said that such worries are understandable. However, with the introduction of new property rights protection policies, the central government attaches great importance to property rights protection, especially the screening and redress of unjust, false and wrong cases against private entrepreneurs that occurred in the past, and the redress of private investors. It is a great benefit. Therefore, we must take advantage of this good situation to intensify the reform of state-owned enterprises and attract the participation of social capital.

In short, how much social capital a 45 trillion investment can attract is the key to testing the role and efficiency, capability and level, quality and effectiveness of investment. Without the participation of more social capital, such investment plans are very dangerous and can easily create new contradictions and problems.