Market analysis of styrene-butadiene rubber_industrial additives

Background and overview^[1][2]

Styrene-butadiene rubber (SBR) is currently the synthetic rubber variety with the highest output and the most widely used. Its processing performance is comparable to that of natural rubber, and its wear resistance, heat resistance, and aging resistance are better than those of natural rubber. It is a natural rubber One of the best substitute rubber types, it is often blended with natural rubber or used alone. According to the polymerization method, SBR can be divided into emulsion-polymerized styrene-butadiene rubber (ESBR) and solution-polymerized styrene-butadiene rubber (SSBR). Among them, ESBR has good comprehensive performance, mature technology, and wide application. Its production capacity, output, and consumption all rank first among SBR. SSBR is widely used in green, anti-skid, ultra-lightweight and other high-performance tires due to its low rolling resistance, excellent wet slip resistance and wear resistance. It has attracted more and more market attention and shows greater development advantages and advantages over ESBR. prospect.

Styrene-butadiene rubber is a synthetic rubber polymerized from butadiene and styrene monomers. It was first made by the German I. R. Farben company using the emulsion method. In the early 1950s, an oxidation-reduction system appeared, which lowered the polymerization temperature to 5 to 8°C to synthesize low-temperature styrene-butadiene rubber with high raw rubber strength. In addition to using different polymerization methods, raw rubber with different properties can be produced by changing the binding amount of styrene. For example, when the binding amount of styrene is 8% to 10%, the low-temperature performance of the raw rubber is excellent, and the brittleness temperature can reach -70°C; when alpha-methylstyrene is used, the brittleness temperature drops to -78°C, and this kind of raw rubber is called butyl Benzene-10. When the styrene binding amount is 23.5%, it has the best overall performance and the most wide range of uses, and is called styrene-butadiene-30. Styrene-butadiene rubber with a styrene-butene binding content of 70% has lost its rubber properties and resembles plastic. Styrene-butadiene rubber is the earliest synthetic rubber to achieve industrialization. It has formed 11 series and more than 100 grades of raw rubber, and its output accounts for 55% of the total synthetic rubber output. Because raw rubber has low strength and poor self-adhesion, it is often used in combination with natural rubber to improve processing performance. Mainly used to manufacture various vehicle tires, hoses, rubber sheets and molded seals for air and air-conditioning systems.

Market^[2]

1. SBR market demand analysis

In 2017, the apparent consumption of domestic SBR was 1.483 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 7.5%; the domestic SBR production was approximately 1.1 million tons, a year-on-year increase of approximately 91,000 tons; the product market share was 74.2%, a year-on-year increase of one percentage point. Taken together, 2017 is the best year for production and sales since 2013. The changes in domestic SBR apparent consumption from 2013 to 2017 are shown in Figure 6.

As can be seen from Figure 6, the change trend of domestic SBR apparent consumption is synchronized with the change of production. Around 2013, device capacity showed a spurt of growth. Domestic SBR production capacity was severely overcapacity and device utilization was low. SBR apparent consumption decreased year by year, reaching a low point in 2015. Then, under the influence of supply-side reform, the overall trend of the industry improved, apparent consumption gradually rebounded, and the market was gradually returning to demand attributes. The supply of substitutes and changes in downstream market conditions have become the main factors affecting the domestic SBR market trend in 2017 and in the next few years.

In terms of substitutes, global natural rubber production in 2017 was 13.27 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.8%; while consumption in 2017 was 13.03 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.5%. The trend of oversupply is obvious. Calculated according to the production cycle, 2018 is still in the release stage of natural rubber production, and the production growth rate will continue to be greater than the consumption growth rate. The continued decline in natural rubber prices will squeeze out part of the SBR market. It is expected that the growth rate of natural rubber production will slow down after 2019, and the squeeze phenomenon may be improved. In terms of the downstream market, the profit margin of the domestic tire industry in 2017 was approximately 1.97%, a year-on-year decrease of 2.96%, and a considerable number of companies were in the red. Coupled with the dual pressures of my country’s supply-side reform and environmental protection policies, the tire industry’s operating rate has dropped to 60% to 70%, which has dragged down the consumption of raw material SBR to a certain extent. In addition, affected by the policy of halving the purchase tax on small-displacement vehicles in 2016, part of the market’s consumption potential has been overdrawn in advance, and the year-on-year growth rate of automobiles in 2017 has declined significantly. However, with the improvement of national consumption levels, its demand growth rate is expected to further recover to a level of 8% to 10% from 2018 to 2019. Stimulated by the favorable factors of purchase tax reduction and new energy subsidy policies, China is entering a peak period for car purchases, and car ownership is expected to continue to maintain double-digit growth, which will bring certain demand support to the domestic tire industry. To sum up, it is expected that the apparent consumption of SBR in 2020 will beSales volume is expected to maintain the growth rate of 2017, and industrial production and sales continue to improve compared with 2013 to 2015.

2. SBR market price analysis

In 2017, domestic SBR prices showed a range-bound trend after rising high and then falling back. In the first half of the year, the price fell broadly, and in the second half of the year, the price fluctuated within a narrow range, with a large market price difference between before and after. Taking SBR1502 as an example, the highest and lowest prices during the year both appeared in the first half of the year. The price high point appeared in early February, reaching a maximum of 24,500 yuan/t. After that, the price plunged sharply, reaching a low of 10,500 yuan/t in mid-June. t. In the second half of the year, SBR prices fluctuated frequently in the range of 11,000 to 14,500 yuan/t, mainly focusing on 12,000 to 13,500 yuan/t.

According to Longzhong Information’s calculation, the theoretical cost price of SBR1502 = butadiene × 0.75 + styrene × 0.25 + 2500. It can be seen that the price of raw material butadiene is the main factor affecting the cost of SBR. Comparing the market price trends of SBR1502 and butadiene, the trends are relatively consistent. Before the Spring Festival, the supply of raw material butadiene was tight, which led to continuous skyrocketing supply prices. The phenomenon of “flour prices being higher than bread prices” supported SBR prices to rise all the way and at a rapid rate. After the Spring Festival, butadiene prices softened, weak downstream market demand, high inventory pressure and many other factors caused prices to plummet. In September, as three sets of butadiene units with a total production capacity of 215,000 tons were put into operation, butadiene prices fell. However, during the same period, Qilu Petrochemical Company unexpectedly shut down, domestic SBR supply decreased, and the market price was relatively resilient. The price trends of SBR1502 and butadiene in 2017 are shown in Figure 9.

In 2017, the domestic SBR fluctuated in a range after rising high and falling back. The supply environment was relatively loose but demand growth slowed down, resulting in limited upward or downward price breakthroughs. It is expected that the domestic SBR market price will fluctuate in the range of 10,000 to 15,000 yuan/t in 2018.

Main reference materials

[1] Modern Materials Science and Engineering Dictionary

[2] Zhang Yue, Li Lin, Zhang Yanhong, Guo Xingtian. Analysis of styrene-butadiene rubber market in 2017 [J]. Elastomers, 2018, 28(04): 82-86.