Three major trends will emerge in the crude oil market in the next five years

From March 11th to 15th, the 38th Cambridge Energy Week (CERAWEEK), the largest annual energy industry conference in the Americas, opened in Houston, the energy center of the United States. At the first press conference, the International Energy Agency (IEA) released a crude oil market analysis and forecast report for the next five years. IEA Administrator Fatih Birol highlighted the three major trends in the report.

First, driven by the continued growth of shale oil production, it is expected that U.S. crude oil production will account for 70% of new global crude oil production capacity.

“The second wave of the U.S. shale oil revolution is coming, and it will affect the entire international oil and gas industry. Pattern.” Birol pointed out that since 2018, the United States has led global oil supply growth. It is expected that by the end of 2024, U.S. oil exports are expected to increase to 9 million barrels per day, and the export scale will surpass Russia and approach the level of Saudi Arabia, making the global oil supply more diversified. In addition, the United States will account for 75% of the increase in global LNG trade.

Second, in the next five years, global oil demand has not yet peaked and will maintain moderate annual growth.

IEA predicts that by 2024, global crude oil demand will increase by 7.1 million barrels per day. The main growth engines come from Asia and the United States. It is expected that by 2024, demand from China and India will be equal. Birol pointed out that with the rapid advancement of electric vehicle technology, the demand for gasoline is not what it used to be. It is predicted that petrochemical products and aviation fuel will be the main driving forces for demand growth in the next five years.

Thirdly, the rules of the oil industry will change in the next five years.

Birol said that two factors are driving changes in the rules of the oil industry: on the one hand, it is based on the , further attention to the sustainable production of natural gas; on the other hand, the International Maritime Organization (IMO) will amend Appendix VI of the International Convention for the Prevention of Pollution from Ships, and the maximum sulfur content of marine fuel oil used by ocean-going ships will be reduced from 3.5% to 0.5 %. The newly revised convention is scheduled to take effect on January 1, 2020, which will impose higher requirements on the refining and transportation links of global oil companies.

According to data from the organizer IHS Markit, about 4,000 representatives from more than 70 countries and regions participated. This year’s Cambridge Energy Week conference is themed “Reshaping the Energy Future”. 750 speakers provide new ideas and engage in dialogue on pressing issues facing energy markets, technology, geopolitics and the climate environment. Energy ministers and heads of multinational oil companies from the United States, Saudi Arabia, Russia, India and other countries attended the meeting and expressed their views on the current and future energy industry situation.

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